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Synopsis Dilution effects arise when increases in species diversity reduce disease risk, and amplification effects arise when the opposite occurs. Despite ample evidence for both phenomena, the mechanisms driving dilution and amplification effects and how they are mediated by environmental factors remain poorly understood. Mechanisms involving demographic rates or stage structure of hosts are particularly lacking in the diversity–disease literature. In Midwestern lakes, Metschnikowia bicuspidata parasites infect Daphnia dentifera focal hosts in autumn, with epidemics beginning when water is warm (∼25°C) and peaking when lakes have cooled (∼15°C). Epidemics are smaller in lakes with more Ceriodaphnia dubia alternative hosts, which serve as key diluters of disease. However, it is unclear whether seasonal changes in temperature affect their ability to alter host population dynamics and reduce disease. We conducted a mesocosm experiment to test how temperature (15, 20, or 25°C) mediated the effects of these key alternative hosts on density, stage structure, and disease dynamics in focal host populations. The experiment yielded several surprising results. First, focal hosts rapidly outcompeted alternative hosts at all temperatures. By the time parasites were added, alternative hosts had been almost completely excluded. Second, despite diluting disease in the field, initial presence of these alternative hosts amplified infection prevalence in the experiment. Third, this amplification arose as a legacy effect, lasting generations after alternative hosts were gone. Our explanation for this legacy amplification effect centers on focal host stage structure and demography. Competition with alternative hosts resulted in focal host populations that were more adult-biased when parasites were added, at all 3 temperatures. Additionally, host densities in these treatments increased more rapidly in the subsequent 10 days, consistent with reduced background death rates. Since adults consume more parasites than juveniles, and since exposed hosts must survive 10 days before producing infectious spores, these initial differences in stage structure and population growth seem to have set disease dynamics along amplified trajectories. These results highlight the need for a broader understanding of the mechanisms that can amplify or dilute disease, including altered host stage structure and mortality of exposed hosts in diverse communities. 

ABSTRACT Environmental conditions such as temperature and resource availability can shape disease transmission by altering contact rates and/or the probability of infection given contact. However, interactive effects of these factors on transmission processes remain poorly understood. We develop mechanistic models and fit them to experimental data to uncover how temperature and resources jointly affect transmission of fungal parasites (Metschnikowia bicuspidata) in zooplankton hosts (Daphnia dentifera). Model competition revealed interactive effects of temperature and resources on both contact rates (host foraging) and the probability of infection given contact (per‐parasite susceptibility). Foraging rates increased with temperature and decreased with resources (via type‐II functional response), but this resource effect weakened at warmer temperatures due to shorter handling times. Per‐parasite susceptibility increased with resources at cooler temperatures but remained consistently high when warmer. Our analysis demonstrates that temperature and resources interact to shape transmission processes and provides a general theoretical framework for other host–parasite systems. 

Abstract Spatial rarity is often used to predict extinction risk, but rarity can also occur temporally. Perhaps more relevant in the context of global change is whether a species is core to a community (persistent) or transient (intermittently present), with transient species often susceptible to human activities that reduce niche space. Using 5–12 yr of data on 1,447 plant species from 49 grasslands on five continents, we show that local abundance and species persistence under ambient conditions are both effective predictors of local extinction risk following experimental exclusion of grazers or addition of nutrients; persistence was a more powerful predictor than local abundance. While perturbations increased the risk of exclusion for low persistence and abundance species, transient but abundant species were also highly likely to be excluded from a perturbed plot relative to ambient conditions. Moreover, low persistence and low abundance species that were not excluded from perturbed plots tended to have a modest increase in abundance following perturbance. Last, even core species with high abundances had large decreases in persistence and increased losses in perturbed plots, threatening the long‐term stability of these grasslands. Our results demonstrate that expanding the concept of rarity to include temporal dynamics, in addition to local abundance, more effectively predicts extinction risk in response to environmental change than either rarity axis predicts alone.